Let's Do Some Math

So, in the last few weeks, more and more often I'm talking mayoral politics with people in the city. People look at me like I have two, maybe three heads when I tell them I think Dan Mylott will be on the ballot in the general election.

I can hear SF Nation gnashing teeth and throwing keyboards. But think about it, and let's do some math.

You have to expect the preliminary election is going to draw 15 to 20 percent of registered voters. That creates a pool of 3,300 to 4,400 voters. Every candidate has a base. In this election, the two best bases belong to Mylott and Tom Donnelly. They've both run citywide and they've been at this the longest. And Mylott's is much deeper than Donnelly's.

Let's assume Mylott doesn't have the widest support of the five candidates. But he certainly makes up for it in depth. There is a certain number of votes Mylott can rely on, no matter what happens. After 20 years in office, it comes with the territory. For now, I'm guessing that between that base and whatever else he picks up -- people think he's making the turn, he's the one candidate someone met, he has the "I" near his name, they just don't like anyone else, the figure, hell, he deserves one more chance in November, whatever -- Mylott can wake up on Sept. 25 pretty sure he's getting 1,000 votes that day.

That gives Mylott anywhere from about 25 to 30 percent of the vote. Consider: Of the remaining 70 to 75 percent, two candidates would have to grab more than 25 percent. Give Dionne 5 percent (if more, all the better for Mylott). Figure one of the remaining three -- Donnelly, Ted DeSalvatore or Lisa Wong -- fizzle and limp home with 12-15 percent. That 70 to 75 percent is now 60 percent, probably less. For both of the other two to get through past Mylott, they'd have to almost exactly split the vote. If one hit 28 and the other 22, likely the 22 is out of the race.

Now, remember, there is a lot of call for change, but that change vote is being split in a number of different directions. One of the challengers doesn't have much hope (Dionne), another has people wondering if he's going to run really, really hard (Donnelly), and the other two haven't run citywide. While there is a lot of potential on the ballot, there are also a lot of questions and wondering. And if you doubt that, look at the Lisa Wong comments here over the last month.

Mylott might lose that base. Some candidates and their followers will quickly say Mylott's cooked, and even his supporters are jumping ship. But that's a feeling that hasn't really been confirmed by more non-partisan folks. Can Mylott lose his base? He most certainly could, and he just might. But the feeling here is that it hasn't happened yet, and until it does, there's a pretty good chance he gets through to November. Can he win there? That's a whole other story (if the change vote gets together behind the Donnelly/DeSalvatore/Wong, forget about it), but for now, the goal is getting through September, and to write Mylott off at this point would be a gross underestimation. Just look at the math.