Why They'll Win, Why They Won't

As you may have heard, there's an election in six days. A week from right now, we'll be analyzing why two people won and two people lost.

Hell with it. Let's check it out now.

Ted DeSalvatore
Why he'll win: It's an angry time, and he's the angry mayor. Or something like that. Tapping into the unrest in the city, DeSalvatore is able to best articulate the mood of Fitchburg. For law-and-order types, his crime-first mantra is the winner. His 6,215 lawn signs gain him some votes.

Why he won't: That unshakable feeling that he's a little wild -- to the point where he closed his debate performance last week with a promise to behave -- turns folks off. While he can attract a fervent following, it's not a very broad following. Notable: He received donations of $200 or more from just 13 people. Thirteen. The question of breadth vs. depth hasn't been answered yet, but that should set off some alarms.

Tom Donnelly
Why he'll win: The best long-term organization in the race comes through. Whether it has been as a councilor for the last eight years or as a community activist for the last 35, Donnelly has more personal relationships in the city than the rest of the ballot combined. In a local race like this, that's all that matters.

Why he won't: In a city thirsting for change, Donnelly is the establishment candidate in the race. Even though he's been a city councilor for eight years, he refuses to take any responsibility for the city's financial situation, which is disturbing. In a wide range of platforms (on my doorstep, in a newspaper interview, and at last Thursday's forum) he has been extremely underwhelming, and that's being charitable.

Lisa Wong
Why she'll win: Voters decide they want the brainiac. For folks who put the city's financial situation at the top of their list, she wins their vote for her business-school approach. She also has created a nice knack of matching fiscal problems to home-front issues, whether it's schools or the dog catcher, making her academic approach somewhat relatable.

Why she won't: People are tired of hearing "goals-oriented," and aren't really sure what that means. Her relative lack of experience and youthfulness raise concerns. Her crown achievements, Putnam Place and Riverfront Park, don't turn voters on, who have heard as often as not that those aren't boffo successes.

Ronald Dionne
Why he'll win: Extreme ballot box malfunction.

Why he won't: He's done minimal campaigning, zero research, and is foggy on most issues. Breaking triple-figures is a victory.