12 Days to Glory

During last night's gubernatorial debate, during the discussion of illegal immigrants, Kerry Healey seemed to be finally gearing up to fight. She said something like "ever-increasing tax revenue," and started to turn toward Deval Patrick. She had kept her debate performance rather, well, tamed, to that point.

If this moment was to be like every other one in the debates leading up to last night, a Patrick ripping was on the way. But it didn't happen. Healey sort of hesitated for the briefest of moments, and moved on.

She made up for it later, using the last half of the debate to go back after Patrick, but the first half was as laid back as Healey has been in a debate. She didn't attack from the beginning, and only warmed up in the second half.

It's probably still a bit too early to start talking about what a Patrick Administration means, but not for too much longer. Healey's performance last night won't deliver the big gains she desperately needs. As he has throughout the general election, Patrick has played the pre-shot clock Dean Smith four corners to perfection, letting the clock leak out.

Healey supporters have long said there's a big October surprise coming. Something that's going to change the face of the campaign. It had better come soon, like today.

I'm not a huge believer in the precise numbers of polls, but I'm a big believer in poll trends. Not even Camp Healey is pitching the "single-digits" internals anymore, with three polls this week putting Patrick up with a lead in the mid-20s.

If Healey does in fact have an October Surprise, she needs to unveil it quickly. Making up 20-something points is no easy task in 12 days. If she has a bomb, she needs to throw it now. She can't wait until next week, unless it's so blockbuster we'll all be left speechless.

Patrick hasn't been overly tested in this general election, as his early tactic of rope-a-dope ended up working as Healey backlash took over. He wasn't pressed too hard in the primary either, as Gabrieli ran a desperate, short-term campaign and Tom Reilly made his fatal errors all by himself. In short, a Governor Patrick will be relatively untested and scouring the state for a new administration. He and his campaign have done an extraordinary job of building an organization and grassroots support, but have really skated through this election to this point. If he does win, it will be interesting to see if he's as good a governor as he is a campaign organizer.

-----

Reminder: Republican Edward Niemczura, who is running for the Fitchburg House seat, is on "Politically Speaking" tonight (7 p.m., FATV Channel 8). He'll answer your questions if you have them. You need to e-mail them in a hurry to get them in.