Before Mayor, President

Before Fitchburg swears in a new mayor, we might have a pretty good idea who is going to be the nominees for president next fall.

Not quite, but pretty close.

The New Hampshire primary is Jan. 8. The swearing-in of Lisa Wong is Jan. 7. She'll barely get the seat warm, and voters up north will be voting. Even earlier are the Iowa caucuses.

As usual, Iowa and New Hampshire will set the tone, and maybe decide things before the other 48 states get a chance to chime in. Everyone likes a winner, and if a candidate can steal two wins, it may be over by Jan. 8.

But, perhaps, unlikely. Here we are, just about a month before the N.H. primary, and both races are very close. Mitt Romney has been caught from behind by Mike Huckabee (Arkansas governor), but can Huckabee pull off a win in New Hampshire? He's polling well, but there's a difference between poll numbers and the organization needed to get people into the rooms in Iowa for caucuses. According to ABC's The Note yesterday, when Huckabee landed in New Hampshire last week, there was no one there to meet him. Not a signal of strong organization.

So, if Huckabee stumbles to third in Iowa and New Hampshire, is he cooked? Maybe. What if Romney or Rudy Giuliani finishes third in Iowa? Then can't win New Hampshire? Are they done?

Organization wins in Iowa. Ask John Kerry if you think otherwise. As he was taking a daily beating from Howard Dean, Kerry's campaign built an unbeatable organization there. Considering the dough he's dropped in Iowa, you'd have to think Romney has the edge there. But he does terrible in "second-choice" polling (the Iowa caucuses are bizarre things that I can't explain), and that's not great news for Romney (courtesy of "Meet the Press").

You'd have to think Romney has best the chance in New Hampshire (oh, if they only knew him like we do), but if he doesn't win Iowa -- and especially if he finishes third -- all bets are off.

Where's Giuliani? He hasn't dumped a lot of dough in Iowa, so who knows how strong is org is there? I can't imagine he's killing 'em in New Hampshire, but who knows? The wild card in all this is Huckabee. Is he just a December Momentum Man, or can he translate it to results? In short, this thing is a toss-up with four weeks left, and a lot is going to happen between now and then.

On the Democrat side, it's pretty much a two-person race between Obama and Clinton (do we really need first names?). That must piss off Joe Biden something royally (first name necessary, no?), but them's the facts.

The only hiccup might be John Edwards. But he needs to finish at least second (again) in Iowa to create big damage to Obama or Clinton. Then he needs to do it again in New Hampshire. I think those are long-shots individually. Together, it's a tough road for Edwards.

So, who wins? Clinton -- like Romney -- has been giving up points in Iowa. Obama has the cash necessary to be in the hunt. But in theory, doesn't Clinton have an organization that did this twice in the 90s? Obama needs to puncture her air of inevitability, and a win in Iowa (or New Hampshire) would most certainly do that.

There's a theory out there that the major candidates have raised so much money, so soon (especially on the Dems side), that a candidate can ride out tough losses in the first two states, and make up ground and come back in the mega Feb. 5 primary day. Maybe. But money can't buy momentum (well, maybe it can) or the air of being an inevitable winner.

Will Iowa and New Hampshire decide this primary season? Maybe, but it seems this year that the biggest day on the calendar might be Feb. 5.

While we're here, note two new polls (which a lot of people seem to hate) on preferences for both parties in the primaries. Have at it.