Tonight's TV

I'll be interested to see how tonight's TV coverage goes. If Obama wins Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania by 9 p.m., will they call it? Or try to build some false drama for a McCain rally? Usually there's a race to be first. It will be interesting to see what happens. Could they call the election before California closes? What if Obama rolls up 215 early on? Everyone knows he's winning Cali. Do you call it then, and maybe lose viewers steadily as the night goes on? I dunno.

I'll say this for some corners of the national media: They've gone out of their way to keep McCain in the game. In general, the media love a good story, and an Obama blowout, at least for tonight, is just about the worst story. A close election, and dramatic comeback or hold-off, is a much better storyline tonight. That's why Pennsylvania is suddenly back in play. McCain has shown a twitch of life there, so it's suddenly a state he can win and create some more avenues to 270. We'll see.

Part of the talk of keeping McCain alive is that the polls might be wrong. In some states, where polling has been going non-stop for weeks and months, that seems difficult to imagine. And consider this: fivethirtyeight.com (yes, I love that site) reported this afternoon that its database includes 2,077,765 interviews. What an amazing figure. If the polls are off, the poll system is so horribly broken, it's scary. But is the poll system really that broken? I guess we'll find out tonight, but considering the width and breadth of polling, that's tough to imagine.

Where It All Ended

If you haven't heard, today's Election Day. Go and do your civic duty, for crying out loud. If nothing else, send a message to the Legislature, make pot a little more legal, and end dog racing*.

Today will be heralded as the end of the very long presidential election, but that's not 100 percent true. The presidential election was decided about six weeks ago, when John McCain's Two Big Gambles came up snake eyes.

Usually, I dislike national polls for presidential elections, because they're useless. Winning the national election doesn't matter, winning states and Electoral College votes do count. Just ask Al Gore. But when you look at the tracking of the national polls, and look back to what was going on, it makes all the sense in the world.

McCain was leading the national polls narrowly in late September (check out the line graph at fivethirtyeight.com to get the details), which makes sense coming on the heels of a pretty good national convention. But then the wheels came off for McCain.

While politics and policy play a big role in choosing a president, there's also that big part of the American public that looks for leadership, intelligence, and steadiness in a president. It's the elected position in our country that probably has more to do with intangibles than it does actual policy goals. Maybe it's because the country and the federal government is so big we subconsciously understand one guy can't really make that much difference. But we look for someone to guide us through the tough times and spur us on when the opportunity to do better arises. With that in mind, consider the second half of September for McCain.

By then, about three weeks after the convention, Sarah Palin was exposed as the horrible choice that she was. Immediately after her pick, the base loved her but a lot of people wanted to find out more. After her woeful Charlie Gibson interview and a better sense of background on Palin, the verdict was in: Palin's best attribute was allowing Tina Fey to absolutely scorch her on Saturday nights. The pick reflected poorly on McCain, and did not exactly point out solid judgment on McCain's part. Arguable in early September, it's almost indefensible now.

At almost the same time, as more and more people wondered "what was he thinking," McCain took what might have been a bigger short-term gamble by staging his threatened debate walk-off to get involved in the bailout talks. That was another one that was quickly scorched by McCain non-fans, and the fallout was even worse. From all reports, McCain offered almost nothing to the conversation, and when the first bailout failed, he was tied to a sinking ship. With the Palin issue nipping at his heels, his judgment and leadership again came up short. He couldn't take credit for making a great save, and instead looked ineffective and jumpy.

In the meantime, Obama took her slow and steady. His was a campaign that wasn't the Tom Brady Patriots of 2007, but the early Tom Brady Patriots. Didn't make mistakes. Took advantage of opportunities. Moved the chains. Didn't try to do too much in one spurt. Accuracy and game planning were the keys.

McCain, however, felt compelled to take risks. In the end, Americans don't want a risk-taker in the White House. They want someone who appears to be a steady hand on the wheel. McCain took two big risks and he failed on both of them. Look at the graphic of the national polls from late September through the first few weeks of October. Obama's numbers took off, and McCain was never able to turn the tide. Those numbers reflect a final verdict on McCain and his judgment.

After eight years of W, McCain may have had an uphill climb from the very beginning, but he made two choices that in the end will prove to have been fatal, and put his candidacy on life support six weeks ago.


*-I don't necessarily subscribe to those opinions, as you might know. And some of that is just factually incorrect (like the pot thing, but let's not get into that now, OK?).

Winners, Winners, Chicken Dinners

No need to watch TV tomorrow night to find out who won and who lost. Here's what's going to happen. Or not. I was wrong one time before, about 14 years ago. It does happen.

President
It appears not "who," but "by how much." I'm not really feeling the 350-plus predictions for Obama, and think he'll do better than the slightly panicky 320 predictions. Let's say he'll get around 330-335 Electoral College votes, a very good haul. The much tougher question is whether or not Obama can declare a mandate with over 50 percent of the total vote. I think he'll just barely make it. But barely.

U.S. Senate and Congress
Locally, John Kerry and John Olver will cruise, each with over 60 percent of the vote. It's worth noting that Kerry's opponent raised something like $2 million, but had to pay $1.75 million to his fundraising consultants. The Globe wrote a story about it last week, and wrote a larger story on Response America over the summer. Nathan Bech was loudly badgering Olver over the summer, but my inbox is lot quieter now than it was in August. Which is weird. Anyway, not much heat in these elections.

State House, Senate and the rest
Heavy boredom, with unchallenged races and down-ballot seats that don't require any attention.

Question 1
It'll fail. I'm not sure it will reach the high-50s that polls have it at. I'm guessing it will be pretty close to 2002, when it failed about 55-45. If the question's proponents were smart, they'd drop it and consider an income tax reduction in the future to 4 percent or so. Then we'd really have something to talk about.

Question 2
Polls have this question exceptionally close. All kinds of police chiefs and other law-and-order types are opposed. I'm guessing, but I think it'll fail. In the end, people will feel like they're making marijuana more OK, and will automatically think that is bad.

Question 3
I think this will fail also, but it will be close. And I wouldn't be surprised if it passes. But I think the emotional argument loses out to voters who wonder just how badly someone would treat their money-makers.

Question 4
This one came out of nowhere. It's non-binding, and encourages green technologies. Fitchburg is one of 11 House districts that have it on the ballot. I got my first press release on it last Thursday night/Friday morning. If people read the question, they'll probably vote in favor of it, but who knows?

So, there you go.

The McCain Numbers Crunch

The national polls have shown a presidential horse race that is stagnant or maybe slightly moving toward John McCain. But national polls are useless in a presidential election.

It’s all about the state polls, and Electoral College delegates. John McCain might be a great closer (although a lousy candidate the other 90 percent of the time) and Barack Obama might be a lousy closer (remember New Hampshire, Indiana, et al), but the map and the numbers are not kind to McCain right now.

Sure, McCain might be able to turn the slow-moving national numbers into a steady stream in the next five days, get state polls going his way, and pull off the upset, but I wouldn’t count on it.

First, the Save Fitchburg theory on polls. Yes, they can be wrong. But over time, with multiple pollsters using multiple methods, it creates a good snapshot on what’s going on. Might polls be wrong? Yes. The 2000 exit polls were a disaster. But these aren’t exit polls. In battleground states, there are so many polls that over the course of the last few months they should be considered pretty reliable.

Let’s break it down. The projections below are from fivethirtyeight.com, a fantastic, scientifically solid site. It’s run by one of those baseball sabermetrics/Moneyball guys. Check it out for all the details. But the theory here is they have a formula that goes over poll results and spits out percentages on probable results. It’s a step beyond poll numbers and looks at probability. Great stuff.

At the bottom of the post is a state-by-state rundown to go digging around the numbers.

Obama has 214 Electoral College votes that are considered 100 percent in the bag. Something crazy would have to happen there. We’re talking California, New York, and yes, Massachusetts here. They aren’t going anywhere.

At the next level, Obama can count on 50 EC votes with 95 percent confidence. The biggie in this group includes Pennsylvania. This gets him to 264. McCain is in trouble. Obama has 22 more EC votes with 90 percent probability. That’s 284, and we’ve got a winner. He’s got 25 more at 80-plus probability, for 319 Electoral College votes.

For McCain, he’s got 118 votes in the 100 percent column, and another 24 at 95 percent. He’s got 18 at 90 percent probability or better, and 3 at 80 percent or better. That’s 163, 107 votes short of the presidency.

The rest are the close battlegrounds. It’s four states, 64 Electoral College votes, including the 27 in Florida. If McCain were to win all of those, he’s at 227, still 43 away from the White House. He’d have to win all of the Obama states at 80-95 percent probability to get 47 votes. Those are Colorado, Virginia, Nevada and Ohio. Obama wins his 95 percent probabilities, and one of those at 80 percent or better, and he wins the presidency. That doesn’t include the 64 EC votes in the close battlegrounds.

The options are very few for McCain. He pretty much has to with both Florida and Ohio if he wants to pull this out, and then do more. Even if he loses both Florida and Ohio, fivethirtyeight projects Obama having a 73 percent chance of winning if he loses them both.

Florida and Ohio would pump another 47 into the McCain column. That gets him to 210, based on the above 163 for McCain lead-pipe cinches. Now he needs to find 60 more. The other closes races – North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri are 37 votes. He needs 23 more. Virginia and Colorado are 22. Now he needs one more state. Any state. Nevada and New Mexico would be likely targets, but we’re dipping into states that are 90 percent probable for Obama.

So, to summarize, McCain needs to figure a way to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, Colorado and Small State X. If he loses either of the first two, he’ll need to find two states to cover for that loss (unless he absolutely steals Pennsylvania).

It’s been interesting the last week or so. You go to some of the big general-interest Websites (I’m thinking Yahoo! in particular here, although Comcast.net isn’t too far behind), and they’ve been headlining the little changes in the national polls in McCain’s favor. The media has loved the Good Story above all else, and a last-minute comeback by McCain would be the ultimate Good Story. Why not keep it alive until the end?

There are a number of variables that can change between now and Tuesday – about 50 to be exact – but there appear to be too many “ifs” and “got tos” for McCain to pull this off. It should probably be a relatively late night, at least until 11 p.m. California’s 55 delegates are a big chunk of the Obama tally, so he might need those to get to 270. If it’s called earlier than that, wow, is it going to be a blow out.

Here’s the list. The number after the state is the Electoral College delegates for that state.

Obama, 100 percent projections: 214
California 55, Obama 100 percent
Connecticut 7, Obama 100 percent
DC 3, Obama 100 percent
Delaware 3, Obama 100 percent
Hawaii 4, Obama 100 percent
Iowa 7, Obama 100 percent
Illinois 21, Obama 100 percent
Massachusetts 12, Obama 100 percent
Maryland 10, Obama 100 percent
Maine 4, Obama 100 percent
Michigan 17, Obama 100 percent
New Jersey 15, Obama 100 percent
New York 31, Obama 100 percent
Oregon 7, Obama 100 percent
Rhode Island 4, Obama 100 percent
Vermont 3, Obama 100 percent
Washington 11, Obama 100 percent

Obama, 95-plus projections: 50
Minnesota 10, Obama 99 percent
New Hampshire 4, Obama 97 percent
New Mexico 5, Obama 98 percent
Pennsylvania 21, Obama, 99 percent
Wisconsin 10, Obama 99 percent

Obama, 90-plus projections: 22
Colorado 9, Obama, 93 percent
Virginia 13, Obama 94 percent

Obama, 80-plus projections: 25
Nevada 5, Obama 83 percent
Ohio 20, Obama 80 percent


McCain, 100 percent projections: 118
Alaska 3, McCain 100 percent
Alabama 9, McCain 100 percent
Arkansas 6, McCain 100 percent
Idaho 4, McCain 100 percent
Kansas 6, McCain 100 percent
Kentucky 8, McCain 100 percent
Louisiana 9, McCain 100 percent
Nebraska 5, McCain 100 percent
Oklahoma 7, McCain 100 percent
South Carolina 8, McCain 100 percent
Tennessee 11, McCain 100 percent
Texas 34, McCain 100 percent
Utah 5, McCain 100 percent
Wyoming 3, McCain 100 percent

McCain, 95-plus projections: 24
Arizona 10, McCain 97 percent
Mississippi 6, McCain 99 percent
South Dakota 3, McCain 99 percent
West Virginia 5, McCain 98 percent

McCain, 90-plus projections: 18
Georgia 15, McCain 92 percent
North Dakota 3, McCain 90 percent

McCain, 80-plus projections: 3
Montana 3, McCain 89 percent

The rest: 64
Florida 27, Obama 70 percent
North Carolina 15, Obama 57 percent
Indiana 11, McCain 56 percent
Missouri 11, Obama 53 percent

Somewhere, Andy Dufresne Smiles

Andy Dufresne, of course, was the protagonist in "Shawshank Redemption." You know the line about hope and being a good thing. And no good thing ever dies.

Barack Obama had a chance to knock the hope out of John McCain, and didn't do it. There's be just enough twitches of life in recent national and state polls to keep the door open for McCain. Considered an excellent closer, McCain has to knock the door down, but at least it's not padlocked shut.

The problem for McCain is there are so many "he's gottas." He's gotta protect a slim lead in Florida, and he's gotta steal Penn. or Ohio. He's gotta come back in traditionally GOP states like Virginia or Colorado. Out of six to eight states, he's probably gotta find his redemption in probably three-quarters of them.

Can he do it? Absolutely. In most of those states the polling numbers are close enough that their not lead-pipe cinches for Obama. I'd also assume there's some soft support for Obama out there that might chicken out at the last minute. We're 10 days away from electing the first black president in this country. That is a monumental sentence. Will some folks stumble on that? It's certainly possible.

You can go to good websites like Real Clear Politics and fivethirtyeight.com and get details on polls and projections (538 is especially good. It's done by a statistician and is excellent) and see the crystal-ball reading of Obama winning 340 to 350 Electoral College delegates -- or more. But I don't think so. I think it tightens up between now and Nov. 4, and it's a Late Night for Natalie come Election Night. Obama certainly has the easier road, but McCain has hope. And that's the best of things.

Question 1

There's a story in tomorrow's Fitchburg Pride about Question 1. You've probably heard about it, you might have even seen the ads on the old TV in the last few days.

There's bad ideas, and there's really bad ideas. Question 1 is a really bad idea.

You're in one of two camps on this one: State government is way bloated and they need to learn a lesson. Or, this will destroy services and probably lead to higher property taxes.

State government is probably bloated, and has some waste in it, even legislators admit to that on this one. But $12 billion? I don't think so. And as the fine folks at MTF point out, the Yes folks are delirious with their $48B state budget figure. It's closer to $31B.

Mass Taxpayer Foundation figures after the state makes payments it has to make and does what it has to do to get federal funding, everything else in state government would get a 70 percent cut. Holy cow, the sky is falling.

The biggest problem with Question 1 is there's no moderation. It would make perfect sense to get the Legislature to lower the tax rate from 5.3 to 5 percent, like it was supposed to a long time ago. It would even make some sense to devise a long-term plan to lower it to 4 percent or something.

But knocking it all out in two years is a recipe for disaster. Education funding and local aid would take a pretty severe cut. And if Q1 were the pass, why would there be any appetite for an override (over/under for a Fitchburg override the first year, $5 million. Like that would ever pass)?

There are a lot of folks in the city (and who comment here), who are frustrated by the library changes, the lack of raises for police and the lack of cops of street. They're not pleased to hear the Fire Department might be closing a station. That would likely be the tip of the iceberg if Question 1 were to pass.

The same question got 45 percent of the vote in 2002, and a majority of voters in Fitchburg voted in favor. But the question was ignored then because opponents thought it was so crazy that no one would vote for it. But they overestimated the wisdom of the electorate. And this go-around, people are a lot more pissed off about the economy and their state of affairs than six years ago.

So, ironically, the big money is rolling in for the no campaign, which will be well past $2 million when it's all said and done. In the meantime, the yes folks are hanging their hopes on public bloodlust and misleading figures (like the total budget number, and the infamous "41 percent of the state budget is waste" line, which was actually a poll result, not any kind of real budget analysis), and about $20 to their name (not really $20, but you know what I mean).

I told one of my friends who works in the Legislature a few weeks ago that might vote yes on 1 just to watch the chaos and see what they'd do. He wasn't pleased. And in the end, there's nothing funny about Question 1.

-----

Quickly, on last night's debate: McCain was somewhere between aggressive and over-the-top angry. I thought there were times he was so angry that he couldn't talk right. It was his best debate performance, but I'm not sure it did him a ton of good. Obama was on the defensive, but defended well enough. If anything, McCain should have given both barrels at the last debate, and then either come back with similar last night or -- more likely -- found a middle ground of looking ahead while smacking Obama again. Too little, too late.

Sometime soon, like in the next week or so, one of two things is probably going to happen. The polls will reflect that Obama peaked too soon, and this thing will tighten up quickly, or Obama will hold onto his leads and they will firm up to the point that he'll cruise to the presidency. I'm not sure McCain did enough last night for that performance to change things, but we'll see, I guess.

Two Men Enter, One Man Leave?

8:53 p.m. -- We're live at the Save Fitchburg Mansion, ready for this little meeting, the second of three between Obama and McCain. Sounds like the storyline leading into tonight is "How nasty?" The ill will has built quite a bit in the last week, and there's a chance it might bubble up tonight. It would be kind of surprising, considering the format and the room. The audience is very close to the candidates, and the atmosphere is fairly intimate. Attacks will be magnified if they come tonight. Will it happen? Who knows.

We're likely watching on CNN, if for no other reason than force of habit, and I've found it to be hilarious to watch the stupid pie-chart graphic thing their poor analysts are forced to do. We're less than 10 minutes from game time. Grab a beverage and a snack, and get ready.

9:01 -- I'm gonna kick your ass. No, I'm gonna kick your ass. That handshake had all the warmth of my car this morning.

9:03 -- Is it just me, or does Barack Obama have two microphones? One on his coat, one in his hands. Is that necessary?

9:07 -- This is clearly the best stage for McCain. I though for a second there he was going to climb into old Alan's lap, but he's certainly more energized than last go-around.

9:09 -- For some reason, I didn't grab a beer before I sat down. If you have one, have a sip at every "my friend(s)." That's my advice.

9:10 -- Meg Whitman and Warren Buffet for treasury. Huh. McCain clearly loves Whitman, the former CEO or something of eBay. Buffet? Seems unlikely. I'm a bit surprised both mentioned an actual name here, though. Pleasantly surprised.

9:12 -- While we're establishing the drinking game rules, finish your beverage when "Wall Street" and "Main Street" are in the same sentence. While I'm here, McCain should probably stop mentioning the whole "I suspended my campaign" stuff. That one, um, didn't work.

9:14 -- At least Obama answered Oliver's question about what the bailout -- sorry, rescue -- plan does for most people. And of course, he has to flip it into "no, no, no, Republicans bad." Can we just all agree here that they're all to blame and move on?

9:18 -- Mrs. Save Fitchburg chimes in for the first time "They can't help themselves," as McCain lights into Obama again on the bailout and whatnot. She's right. They really can't. Mrs. Save Fitchburg is so smart.

9:20 -- "Nobody's completely innocent here," sayeth Obama, but George Bush is really, really craptacular. Mrs. SF strikes again.

9:22 -- It's time for a stupid CNN "analyst scorecard" update. We'll add up the plusses and minuses, and give a score: Plus-3 for McCain, plus-24 for Obama. I have no idea what that means, really.

9:23 -- Fitchburg's future, I wanna watch the next debate with you. Maverick! indeed. Unfortunately, Palin's done on the debate stage.

9:25 -- McCain mentions his good friend Joe Lieberman, who takes that opportunity to curse McCain for picking Palin. So close, Joe. So close.

9:26 -- Oooh. Good prep work by the Obama campaign to drop him today's gas price. Either that or the candidate noticed as he was being driven around town today. Or not. I'm betting on the not. Yeesh.

9:27 -- Obama rolls out the horrible "go through the budget line by line" poopie that is just so unbelievable. The dude's got a nerve. And he says he's going to find programs that don't work. Shouldn't he have a specific or two at this point?

A 78-year-old on the Internet? Right on.

9:29 -- Mrs. Save Fitchburg doesn't like aimless talk about going through the budget. I told you she was very smart. Pretty, too.

9:30 -- We're at the one-third pole, and this has been relatively boring. No new ground, and no sniping. Certainly not the nuclear attack from McCain some were predicting. We've still got an hour, but so far, so bland.

9:31 -- Obama: "A lot of you remember the tragedy of 9/11." "A lot?" I think a few more than that, there Barack.

9:35 -- Where do you think Mitt Romney is watching tonight? And how pissed is he? Suddenly, this campaign is about the economy, and he's the bestest businessman there every was. And what's he doing? Uh, I actually don't have an answer to that question right now. But if the sentence includes "2012," it's probably accurate.

9:37 -- Whoa, did McCain just drop news on the doubling of the kid deduction? I don't think that came up at the last debate. And I'm not sure about this, but I think I'm better off the way things are now, paying my health care through work and not paying taxes on it. Just saying.

9:38 -- "I think the Straight Talk Express lost a wheel on that one." And there's the worst line of the night. Take a bow, Barack Obama.

9:41 -- McCain says fixing Social Security isn't that tough. I think I'll disagree on that one, thanks. Two "my friends" so far in this answer. Someone take Fitchburg's Future's keys away.

9:42 -- Another "my friends." Fitchburg Future is calling into work tomorrow.

9:43 -- What's a green job? Time for a useless CNN "Analyst Scorecard" update. McCain, still plus-4. Obama, plus-42. Wha? This debate is so mediocre and even right now, it's ridiculous. Yet CNN has Obama up 38 points? Ugh. It pisses me off that "the media" gets lumped together too much, without any thought or depth, and unfairly. But it's stupid crap like this that makes me wonder.

9:46 -- I'll admit, I'm intrigued by nuclear power. Has the technology gotten better since Three Mile Island, or is the old Seabrook scare factor too much to overcome? Is there someone, somewhere, who can discuss this logically and with some intelligence? Or it just a bad, bad idea?

9:47 -- Brokaw is pissing me off. If they're going over time, he needs to cut them off. He needs to stop this passive-aggressive stuff. Although I like the "Manhattan Project-like" nuclear power question.

9:51 -- A slight tangent: In all this health insurance talk, no one says "hey, look at Massachusetts." I wouldn't expect it from McCain. Maybe it's one of Obama's little secrets. That said, the missed story of the week: The Globe's story on how ER visits are still pumping, even with so many more people insured. This was supposed to lower the costly ER visits, and so far, not so good. Great story that I didn't pay enough attention to.

9:53 -- Here's one thing for sure: These guys have different ideas, different philosophies, and different plans for what to do. There's no "these guys are pretty close. I don't know." McCain is on his insurance plan again. Someone needs to tell me if I win in this or not. I keep reading I wouldn't, but I haven't been sold.

9:55 -- Doing the math in my head, there's no way McCain's plan is good for me. I pay a sizable chunk of my health care, and that $5,000 deduction is worth what, like $1,700? It would be a loss for me, I think.

9:58 -- I know what you're thinking: "This health care talk is a waste of time, because it's too damn to fix." I'd agree with you, gentle sir/madam.

10:01 -- Time to put the hammer down. Three drinks per "surge."

10:02 -- Here's a question that won't get asked tonight: What's our responsibility in Iraq? Leave when everything is ironed out? Leave when they're well on their way? Leave now and let the dice fall where they may? How much is our long-term staying there guilt for ripping that place apart? I think McCain will talk about "victory" soon, but what's "victory?" Al queda was never there, and Hussein is gone. We've won already, in some aspects. Is the equivilent of a two-point a win a "victory," or do we have to win by 20? This is some fundamental stuff that seems to get lost in the rhetoric.

10:07 -- Hey, kids, what time is it? CNN "Analyst Scorecard" time. Yea! McCain: plus-11. Obama, plus-60. I'd say this thing is making me stupider, but I'm still able to the maths in my head, so maybe not.

10:09 -- Do I want to be the "F section?" This is broadcast TV, right?

10:11 -- For the second debate in a row, Obama said we will "kill" Bin Laden. Not "get him," or "capture him," or "hunt him down." "Kill." That doesn't seem very, how do you say, presidential.

10:16 -- We've got 14ish minutes left, and it hasn't gotten ugly yet. They both clearly feel the other is wrong on Iraq/Afghanistan/Pakistan, but it's been more slap-fight than bomb-throwing tonight.

10:17 -- Barack Obama is an international name-dropper. Elitist swine.

10:24 -- One more CNN "Analyst Scorecard" count. Because you're wondering. McCain: plus-18. Obama: plus-59. I still don't know what that means, but I do know Obama wasn't three times better tonight.

10:24 -- Obama doesn't want to call Russia an "Evil Empire." McCain says "maybe." That's diplomatic. However, the right answer is everyone knows the Evil Empire is in The Bronx.

10:25 -- I thought McCain might hug Terry the former Naval officer. Instead he gave him a pat on the shoulder. Just one more disappointment tonight.

10:26 -- What's the highlight tonight? What's the clip everyone is going to show tonight and tomorrow? I admit I'm dog-ass tired, and my attention was divided between TV and keyboard, but there's not a good one that comes to mind. Anyone?

10:28 -- In the unasked questions category: How much money have you lost in your investments in the last three weeks? I'd love to know.

10:30 -- This last question sucks, and will lead to non-answers. Enjoy.

10:34 -- McCain's closing is very, very good.

10:35 -- At least on CNN, I missed McCain and Obama shaking hands because of a lousy camera angle. In the end, much of the same from a few weeks ago, no real big winner. Big loser? Brokaw. He stunk. Good night, Fitchburg.

Live-Blogging Tonight

I'm 80 percent sure I'll be live-blogging tonight's presidential debate showdown. I mean, it is "Debate Night in America," after all.

80 percent? Well, between early tee times and late-night baseball, I'm not at the top of my game. In fact, I'm thinking sitting at the ye olde keyeboarde will get me through this mess. But I might just totally pack it in and sit on the couch. But clearly, I'm thinking ye olde keyeboarde.

So, join me, won't you, for the second prezzie debate. I'll check comments regularly throughout during the boring parts, so send along a note, a term of endearment, or whatever.

About Last Night

I ended up undergoing a fairly interesting experiment last night. My basketball game in Waltham ended at 8:55, which meant I listened to the first half of the vice presidential debate on the radio, and watched the second half on TV (and after sticking out the Sox the night before, DVR-delay wasn't an option).

This was something of an unscientific experiment, because the first half of the debate was pretty domestic, and the second half pretty foreign. But from my listening/viewing, Sarah Palin was much better in the first half. Here's why.

After watching for a few minutes, I turned to Mrs. Save Fitchburg and asked if she had been reading her answers all night long. She had scribbled down her memorized bullet points while Joe Biden gave his answer, and then looked down and clicked right through them. On the radio, I though she was just sifting through the audio files and coughing them up as needed. Coming home and seeing that she was heavily reliant on her crib sheet lessened her performance.

That said, she did what she had to do. She didn't implode, she made some points, and she ran out the clock as necessary. I thought her answer on global warming was completely false and a real stretch. You could just tell that her programmed response wasn't really what she feels on that issue. That said, I didn't believe either her or Biden on same-sex couples (I think she secretly has no use for same-sex benefits of any color, and I think Biden secretly would approve of gay marriage. Just a hunch).

If you're a clear-thinking observer, you think Palin did fine. C+, maybe a B-. You didn't turn off the TV and think "I underestimated her." You didn't turn it off and think "Wow, was she a disaster." If you're a Palin hater, there was plenty of grist for the mill (I'd say, specifically, the "I've been at this for five weeks" line was particularly troublesome). If you're a Palin fan, you're thrilled with her effort to paint herself as a regular person (personal note: Is the vice presidency a job for a "regular person?"). You're happy with her attack lines, which were solid. You're feeling a little bit better about things.

I thought Biden was solid. B, maybe a B+. I watched on CNN, where he won the ridiculous analyst pie chart thing. More interesting, I thought he did better on the scrolling line graph of uncommitted Ohio voters. Even more interesting, the way that thing spiked every time Biden took off on George Bush. I thought Biden was better, but not by light years.

Finally, if you didn't know any better, Gwen Ifill gave no hint of bias, impropriety, or anything else. In fact, even if you did know better, and were looking for it, Ifill was perfectly fine as moderator. Dead issue (not that it ever really had much of a life).

About Tonight, And Last Night

When was the last time the country was so into a vice presidential debate? When was the last time a veep debate had so much promise for drama? When was the last time we cared this much?

I'm not sure about the answers to any of the above, but I do know this: More people than usual are very intrigued by tonights Palin-Biden faceoff.

Much of it, of course, is wrapped up in the Curious Case of Sarah Palin. From mega-star to mega-worry in a month, this is Palin's big night. She struggled through her hyped interview with Charlie Gibson, and she absolutely bombed in her much-hyped interview with Katie Couric (a chunk here. You can find the rest if you haven't seen it).

Palin has proven to be everything you kind of thought she'd be: Overly scripted, short on details, and trying so hard to stay on message that she blows it when pressed on specifics. Her inability to name one newspaper or magazine she read regularly was disturbing. Her insistence on answering follow-up questions with the same programmed response is even more disturbing. In short, I think she's sucked so far in her one-on-ones.

Biden, of course, is a whole other ball of fun. He says the wrong thing quite often (the whole debacle over him saying a campaign ad was terrible, then backtracking was particularly bad), and can stray off the talking points too much and get into trouble.

All that said, I think by tomorrow morning the storyline is going to be "the return of THE Sarah Palin." Debates offer the opportunity for more generalities, with little follow-up for specifics. Palin can stick to the message, and work her charm and likability. While she offered little depth in her convention speech, it was a winner. I expect that kind of performance tonight. I think Biden won't go for the jugular, and will instead hope she hangs herself. I also think it's more like Biden makes a big mistake than Palin.

While Tina Fey and "Saturday Night Live" have been absolutely killing Palin -- and I'd say more people have watched that online than on TV -- it might be the best thing for Palin. Expectations are low for tonight for Palin, and I think she's going to surpass them easily.

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I haven't written one word this year about the Red Sox. A big chunk of that is due to my unhealthy obsession for the first half of the season with the Celtics (by the way, Mrs. Save Fitchburg wins the award for Wife of the Year/Decade/Century/Eternity with her procurement of C's opening night tickets. Unbelievable). There was also kind of a, you know, complacency in the Sox this year.

That said, I was up until 1:30 this morning watching the Sox put the Angels to bed in Game 1 of the AL Divisional Series. Jon Lester was massive. Jason Bay was clutch. Jacoby Ellsbury was great.

I need a nap, but before I hide under the desk for a snooze, I've thought for about a month now that if the Sox can somehow get past the Angels, they're going to win the World Series. I think the White Sox are flawed, and I'm gambling that at some point the stage gets too big -- and the collars too tight -- for the Rays. Although the Cubs are damn good, I have little fear of the NL. Too many World Series sweeps, I guess.

So, here we go. Hopefully another month of late nights and big wins. Much of it likely depends on Josh Beckett staying healthy, and getting the rust off J.D. Drew and keeping Mike Lowell on the field wouldn't hurt. But after last night, you can't help be excited by the potential.

Who's 'The Guy?'

Before diving in, a brief thought on this bizarre McCain campaign suspension idea: If McCain had said "I'm going off the campaign trail, dropping my debate prep, and concentrating on this crisis for a few days. If my debate performance stinks on Friday, too bad for me, but the country takes precedence," that would be one thing. But the whole suspension -- even taking down ads -- makes it look like desperate grandstanding. Why take your ads down? What does that have to do with it? Running ads don't effect a darn thing. McCain may have had a good idea here, but he overplayed his hand.

Now, on with the show...

Yesterday afternoon I had a wonderful lunch with someone who has played a role in city government and politics for decades. But afterward, I think we both went away a little frustrated and discouraged on one particular issue.

What we decided is that there is no absolute power player in the city who can mobilize forces, get people together, set a goal, and make it happen. In short, there's no "The Guy" who can demand results on a shared priority.

The mayor can be that person, but usually it takes a mayor with a longish tenure and the mandate to look forward. The current mayor has a shortish tenure, and is still focused on the city's survival.

How about other politicians? Stephen DiNatale seems to be a capable representative, but hasn't shown the ability to be the force of nature that demands people make something happen. Jen Flanagan is completely unproven in this realm, and isn't from the city. I don't know of a councilor who has the power to pull something together. Is there a business leader in the city who can fill the power void?

What we're talking about here is someone who has power, ability, network and resources to get the power players in the same room and say "This what we're going to do, and all of here are going to make it our top priority until it gets done. And we're going to get it done." And then they make a big public display and keep talking about it until it happens.

I think back to the Crocker Field restoration event at the Fay Club a few weeks ago (read about it here). The room was full of the city's power players, but I don't think there was The Guy who could grab the city by the scruff of the neck and drag it forward. The Crocker Field folks are looking for $3.2 million overall, and $900,000 for FieldTurf. It appears to be a very significant mountain, so Crocker Field can be more than a few dozen times a year. A great idea for the city, and should be a priority.

But there's no one who can organize all the leaders and demand results. There's no force of nature that says "jump" and gets people leaping. I think back to last year's holiday lights fiasco, where the city needed $5,000. There was no one to step up and take that over and make it happen, and that was for a measley $5,000.

There are dozens of priority projects for the city, but no one who can say "OK, we're doing this one first, everyone get on board." There's no one who can sit at a table with the 10 most important people in the city, demand unity and action, and get something done. There isn't The Guy, who through sheer force of will and power, makes stuff happen.

Or maybe there is, and I don't know who it is. If there is, now would be a good time for The Guy to step forward. It's a void in leadership that needs filling.

My Obsession with New Hampshire Grows

If you go back a few weeks, you'll find my last post about New Hampshire and its potential role in this year's presidential election.

I've been picking away at this particular scab, and my obsession only gets larger. Certainly Florida was The Story in the 2000 election, and rightly should have been. And always will be. But...

Did you know that Bush won the Electoral College 271-267? Or by one more than the magic 270? And that he won New Hampshire by only like 9,000 votes (like 1.5 percent)?

The Electoral College map looks so close, still, that I continue to wonder what is going on with our neighbors to the north. N.H. will be one of the first battleground states to wrap up on Election Night -- maybe the first -- but it might provide the four votes Obama or McCain needs to win the White House. I'm picking up scattered reports that some locals are organizing to go northward between now and Nov. 4, but not too much.

I know at least one faithful reader here lives in N.H. (yes, Derek, I'm looking at you). If you live in the Granite State, or have some insight into what's happening up there, please share. My obsession needs some soothing.

Meanwhile, just a few miles away

I hate to get into more presidential politics after last night's and today "Lefferts is a dumb poopiehead" comments (although I wonder why people don't either, 1. read what I write or, 2. believe it. Because that's apparently a problem on this stuff), but I'm a sucker for punishment.

Anyway, I was trolling around Real Clear Politics, where they have Obama currently up in Electoral College, 273-265. That includes toss-up states breaking one way or another (obviously), so to call it a hard and fast count is probably not a good idea.

Furthermore, according to RCP, Obama has a poll average lead of .3 percent in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is four Electoral College votes. Hey... if I move four EC votes from NH to McCain... it's a tie. That would be awesome.

Considering the comments on here in the last 24 hours, I suspect there are some pretty solid McCain fans trolling. Not sure about Obama fans, but I assume they're out there. So, anyone planning on hiking to NH between now and Election Day and doing some civic good? Or will we just watch and see what happens? Crazy to think such a battleground is just 10 or 12 miles away, and all we can do is watch and maybe pitch in a little bit if super-motivated.

Restoring Radio Contact

Sorry for not posting much lately. Between vacation and the unbelievable chaos at work since returning, I've had little time to even think about what's going on, forget come up with decent thoughts about it. And considering the unending litany of comments, I figure I'm at least the stupidest asshole in Fitchburg, if not all of New England, and it's a fight I don't have the energy, time or patience for.

Anyway, here's a couple of random thoughts from the stupidest asshole in New England:

I was looking for a reason not to vote for Barack Obama. As much as I was sort of resigned to pulling the trigger for him, I didn't really want to, and was hoping John McCain would give me a reason to vote for him.

Instead, McCain pretty much pushed fulling to Obama with the Sarah Palin pick. It has nothing to do with the whole teen pregnancy business, and everything to do with the fact that McCain would be putting one heartbeat away someone who was essentially the mayor of Ashby two years ago. So unprepared, so not ready. Such a bad pick. It makes me seriously question McCain's judgement, and I really question how well this pick was vetted. If you can't get this right, what can you get right?

The state Senate election is 13 days from now. What a snorefest. Why? Is it just assumed Flanagan has it in the bag? What am I missing? For a race that last winter seemed rock-em-sock-em robots, it's been dullsville.

On the other hand, it seems like the Red Sox are putting together at just the right time. Five series wins in a row, and getting good ball over the place. Dustin Pedroia is ridiculous right now. Imagine if they could get fully healthy. They're not catching the Rays (although the throw-away tix for next Tuesday's game that is part of my package is looking very good right now), but they're likely making the playoffs. If they can beat the Angels in the first round, I like their chances against Tampa/Chicago/Minny/all of the NL. Hopefully they play this well the rest of the way.

Football season starts tomorrow night. I'd be psyched if the Raiders finished 8-8. Sad, I know, but that's the way it is. I am excited to see Darren McFadden, and worried to see JaMarcus Russel. They're on MNF (late game) next Monday. I guess the Pats will be good, too.

Eh, that's it. It's quiet on the city side, no?

A Little Presidential Time Out

It's been a while since the last look at the presidential election, and the timing is right to discuss my love affair with McCain's "The One" ad (that's it, above).

I love it for many reasons. I love it because it so completely mocks the sense of greatness Obama seems to carry with him. I love it because it is so blatant (and mean-spirited). I love it because it hammers at Obama's biggest weakness -- his lack of experience. I love it because Charlton Heston as Moses appears.

I love it more than this one, which is the one that gets most of the attention in the silly days of summer, although it's probably just as effective:



Finally, I love it because it is so pitch-perfect for this stage of the campaign. It's the summer, and this campaign has seemed to drag on forever. People don't want more issues right now. They want, for better or worse, to be entertained between innings of Red Sox games. What better than Brittany Spears, Paris Hilton, and Moses?

These ads really a little slice of genius, I say. They make their political point, they're funny, and they're mocking and disrespectful, but not to the point of outrage. Brilliant.

While Obama should be killing -- his Middle East trip, his momentum, McCain's lack of momentum in the last month or so, his money advantage -- polls are stagnant. I'm not sure how much the ads have to do with that, although the ads do tap into the undercurrent question that I think is on people's minds. Is he ready to lead? Is he The One?

A lot is going to happen between now and November, and the race will get more boring after Labor Day, when everyone thinks voters will start really paying attention. But for now, I'm loving "The One" ads.

When Will This Late Game End?

Ugh. It just goes on and on. Even though her obit was written months ago (it was written here on Feb. 27), Hillary Clinton finds just enough reason to keep dragging out this Democratic presidential nomination process.

Let's talk sports for a minute here. Basketball, perhaps. Clinton came into this game as the favorite, Obama built up a narrow lead by halftime, and has managed to protect most of it in the second half. But he hasn't put Clinton away. Let's say, at this point, Clinton is down by six with about two minutes left. Can she win? Yes. But will she? Well, she'll need some help down the stretch. But weirder things have happened.

In some ways, Clinton makes a compelling argument. She has won the big states, and she has won some important states. Barack Obama makes a point when he says he'll win California. But what about Pennsylvania, which is in play this fall? He couldn't win there. More importantly for Democrats, how about Ohio, which is most certainly in play? Clinton won there, too.

The presidential election is all about the Electoral College, and winning the key states. Ohio is one of them. Don't the Democrats want their best player in that game? Clinton's win there and in PA gives her standing.

Additionally, what is about Obama that doesn't allow him to seal the deal? Certainly, the nature of politics tries to drag down a frontrunner -- especially a frontrunner that has a narrow lead -- but for a guy who had at least three chances to shut the door (New Hampshire, Ohio/Texas, last night), he has not been able to do it. Why can't he close?

On the flip side, Obama has the lead, and enough of a lead that it's going to take some unseemly backroom dealings by Team Clinton to win the nomination. It would have to kill on the superdelegate side, which would do nothing to reduce her insider label. And it would play into the "Hillary's a conniving schemer" wing of both parties, which would not be good times for the Democrats. Although this is what the Democrats get for building things this way.

She's playing by the rules, even though the rules stink, and how can you blame her? She's thisclose to pulling this off, and she'll never get this close again. While Republicans don't mind retreads in their presidential candidates (say hello, Richard Nixon, George Bush I, Bob Dole, and John McCain), the Democrats usually cast theirs aside (hi, Al Gore and John Kerry). It's now or never or Clinton, and it's not the most horrible thing to exend "now" a bit longer.

Obama's problem is that his lead is just too small. While all signs point to him winning, that mythical six-point lead is too short to allow him to play out the clock. Clinton's going to need to pull off a comeback for the ages, but ask Kansas if that's possible (that's a basketball reference, not a political one).

So, on it goes. Clinton is now playing to win, firing threes, and Obama is playing not to lose, hoping the damn clock will finally run out. In the meantime, he's burning through the amazing pile of dough he's accumulated ($41 million in March. Good Lord), and neither one is going to come out of this in great shape. There's another game after this one, and the opponent is rested and ready.

Sadly, It's All Over

For the last three or four months, in particular, this presidential primary season has been gripping to watch. Last night, however, pretty much finishes things off.

Hillary Clinton gave another performance that didn't really make people want to run out and vote for her, and it seems more and more obvious she isn't going to win Texas and Ohio next Tuesday. Not only does she have zero momentum, but has been the case throughout the primary season (except New Hampshire) Barack Obama is coming on late in the polls. Clinton may end up squeaking one out next Tuesday, but it won't be enough.

This primary season was so much fun because it wasn't over very early. A year ago, some folks wondered if there'd be any drama in Super Tuesday. Of course there was, and on the Democrat side we got an extra month or so to enjoy. It was nice to see things drag on for a while, and the nation got a bit of an education in delegates and conventions.

However, there were still things about it that weren't so hot. Like the sudden decision that Obama was the guy. He was behind Clinton in delegates for months, got a small lead, and suddenly had her on the ropes. Of course, Clinton's campaign struggled as a frontrunner, and was never built to come from behind, and its gaping holes showed in the last month. But how much is one influenced by the other?

Anyway, barring something crazy, we have a nice presidential matchup in McCain vs. Obama. A heroic war veteran who is attractive to independents takes on a young, black agent of hope who is attractive to independents. Is this country ready to elect a black man to the highest office in the land? Very much a possibility. If Obama wins this election, you won't be able to underestimate what it means.

But will he win? Time to round up the usual suspects (hello Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvannia and friends). But in the meantime, it's time to turn toward the state Senate race and get back to presidential politics later.

It's a Busy Night Out There

Maybe Jay Cruz and his troops should get back out there tonight.

I just voted at Ward 3, and it was kind of a madhouse. I was #867 to vote, and there was no letting up. I think precinct 1 will hit 1,000, easy, and a couple hundred extra to boot, from the looks of it. I drove by Ward 1 on my way, and it looked busy there, too. Appears everyone was waiting for the rain to stop.

If you're voting tonight, be prepared for at least a short line. Drop us a note about your voting experiencing. Crowded? What number were you? You seeing a lot of red or blue ballots (I was surprised at how many Republican ballots I saw being picked up, to be honest)? Info, please.

Friends in High Places

It's a little blurry, but there you go: Lisa Wong on stage with U.S. Sen John Kerry, Gov. Deval Patrick, and Caroline Kennedy during Barack Obama's Boston appearance last night. Ted Kennedy is just off the left edge of the screen.

And that's it on stage. Three senators, a governor, a daughter of a former president, and the mayor of Fitchburg. Say what you want about Wong, and some people already are, but that's pretty stinking amazing. How can that be bad for Fitchburg? I do not know.

Wong spoke to the crowd first last night.

"In 2007 I fought against claims that I did not have enough experience, that the city of Fitchburg was not ready to elect a young asian woman, that I was too academic and that I should wait my turn. That tactic did not work in 2007 and it certainly will not work in 2008," Wong said. "I am proud to be the new Mayor of the city of Fitchburg, just as I will be proud when Barack Obama is the new President of the United States."

Wong is a member of Obama's New England steering committee, and said (half-jokingly, but half not) that she'll try to get him to Fitchburg when he's president.

Will Barack Obama remember Lisa Wong on Jan. 20, 2009, if he's taking the oath of office? Who knows. But someone in the Obama campaign is paying attention and will remember her, and there's nothing wrong with that at all.

Busy, Busy Day

Three things:

First, five people were sitting right behind Barack Obama last night during his appearance at the World Trade Center in Boston: Ted and Caroline Kennedy, Deval Patrick, John Kerry, and Lisa Wong. How does this happen? We're working on it, and we're also working on getting a screen grab, to prove we're not crazy. More on this later, I think.

Second, today, of course, is primary day. Go vote. Throw on your raincoat and do your civic duty. And don't forget to sign the petition for charter review. It's your duty.

Third, a federal agency today is recommending funding for commuter rail improvements. You can read a little bit more, and get a link to the agency's report, at the Fitchburg Pride website.