About Tuesday Night

OK, OK, it's a day later, but whatever.

Brian Knuuttila was smart enough to know early on that Fitchburg would be a key community for him. Unfortunately for him, he wasn't able to come through with the performance he needed to win.

Not that this was very clear back in February, when Knuuttila and Jen Flanagan jumped into the Senate race, but the map was stacked again Knuuttila from the beginning.

Under Knuuttila's best case, Flanagan dominated Leominster and the southern 'burbs, while he cleaned up in Gardner and the northern burbs, while stealing Lunenburg and trouncing in Fitchburg. The only thing he got was the Gardner part.

Part of it was what was going on down the ballot. Flanagan earned more support in her key communities because there were other elections grabbing attention -- and voters. Leominster had a House race, as did Clinton and Sterling. It was particularly helpful in Clinton, where Flanagan rolled up a 644-vote victory.

For Knuuttila was cursed with a smaller base in Gardner, which is half the size of Leominster. With no House race there, he was immediately playing big catchup.

From the beginning, Knuuttila thought Fitchburg would be where he won the election. He started the race with tons of support from city councilors and others, and his growing up in the city and being a rep for part of it for years were considered benefits. However, Fitchburg didn't have the votes available that Knuutila needed.

A few weeks ago, I was talking to a Knuuttila supporter who though maybe a 60-40 victory for Knuuttila would be enough to win. But that didn't consider the low turnout. And the Fitchburg turnout was dreadful by any measure -- and for Knuuttila it was beyond fatal. Consider: Flanagan earned more votes in Leominster (4,234) than the total votes cast in Fitchburg (3,567) by almost 700. Yikes.

All that said, Knuuttila failed in a number of areas. He split northern town Ashby, and lost in Townsend. He needed a win in Lunenburg, and lost by 273 votes, winning only 35 percent of the vote. In Fitchburg, he won by only 267 votes, winning only 53 percent. His supporters were hoping for 60 percent, and he fell well short of that standard.

It was, in the end, a weird campaign. Where were the standouts? I didn't see one, and I drive through the intersection of Electric Ave. and South St. -- a popular standout spot -- almost every day. Where were the sign-holders on election day? While the candidates had a fiery distaste for each other, it didn't carry over to the campaign, which was dull, listless, and boring.

One Flanagan supporter said there was so much concentration on likely voters -- which might have explained the ridiculous amount of mailers -- that there was no effort to reach unlikely voters who weren't coming out. That might have been a sound strategy for Flanagan, but Knuuttila needed to get voters out in Fitchburg and Gardner to win, and he didn't do it.