Where It All Ended

If you haven't heard, today's Election Day. Go and do your civic duty, for crying out loud. If nothing else, send a message to the Legislature, make pot a little more legal, and end dog racing*.

Today will be heralded as the end of the very long presidential election, but that's not 100 percent true. The presidential election was decided about six weeks ago, when John McCain's Two Big Gambles came up snake eyes.

Usually, I dislike national polls for presidential elections, because they're useless. Winning the national election doesn't matter, winning states and Electoral College votes do count. Just ask Al Gore. But when you look at the tracking of the national polls, and look back to what was going on, it makes all the sense in the world.

McCain was leading the national polls narrowly in late September (check out the line graph at fivethirtyeight.com to get the details), which makes sense coming on the heels of a pretty good national convention. But then the wheels came off for McCain.

While politics and policy play a big role in choosing a president, there's also that big part of the American public that looks for leadership, intelligence, and steadiness in a president. It's the elected position in our country that probably has more to do with intangibles than it does actual policy goals. Maybe it's because the country and the federal government is so big we subconsciously understand one guy can't really make that much difference. But we look for someone to guide us through the tough times and spur us on when the opportunity to do better arises. With that in mind, consider the second half of September for McCain.

By then, about three weeks after the convention, Sarah Palin was exposed as the horrible choice that she was. Immediately after her pick, the base loved her but a lot of people wanted to find out more. After her woeful Charlie Gibson interview and a better sense of background on Palin, the verdict was in: Palin's best attribute was allowing Tina Fey to absolutely scorch her on Saturday nights. The pick reflected poorly on McCain, and did not exactly point out solid judgment on McCain's part. Arguable in early September, it's almost indefensible now.

At almost the same time, as more and more people wondered "what was he thinking," McCain took what might have been a bigger short-term gamble by staging his threatened debate walk-off to get involved in the bailout talks. That was another one that was quickly scorched by McCain non-fans, and the fallout was even worse. From all reports, McCain offered almost nothing to the conversation, and when the first bailout failed, he was tied to a sinking ship. With the Palin issue nipping at his heels, his judgment and leadership again came up short. He couldn't take credit for making a great save, and instead looked ineffective and jumpy.

In the meantime, Obama took her slow and steady. His was a campaign that wasn't the Tom Brady Patriots of 2007, but the early Tom Brady Patriots. Didn't make mistakes. Took advantage of opportunities. Moved the chains. Didn't try to do too much in one spurt. Accuracy and game planning were the keys.

McCain, however, felt compelled to take risks. In the end, Americans don't want a risk-taker in the White House. They want someone who appears to be a steady hand on the wheel. McCain took two big risks and he failed on both of them. Look at the graphic of the national polls from late September through the first few weeks of October. Obama's numbers took off, and McCain was never able to turn the tide. Those numbers reflect a final verdict on McCain and his judgment.

After eight years of W, McCain may have had an uphill climb from the very beginning, but he made two choices that in the end will prove to have been fatal, and put his candidacy on life support six weeks ago.


*-I don't necessarily subscribe to those opinions, as you might know. And some of that is just factually incorrect (like the pot thing, but let's not get into that now, OK?).