Winners, Winners, Chicken Dinners

No need to watch TV tomorrow night to find out who won and who lost. Here's what's going to happen. Or not. I was wrong one time before, about 14 years ago. It does happen.

President
It appears not "who," but "by how much." I'm not really feeling the 350-plus predictions for Obama, and think he'll do better than the slightly panicky 320 predictions. Let's say he'll get around 330-335 Electoral College votes, a very good haul. The much tougher question is whether or not Obama can declare a mandate with over 50 percent of the total vote. I think he'll just barely make it. But barely.

U.S. Senate and Congress
Locally, John Kerry and John Olver will cruise, each with over 60 percent of the vote. It's worth noting that Kerry's opponent raised something like $2 million, but had to pay $1.75 million to his fundraising consultants. The Globe wrote a story about it last week, and wrote a larger story on Response America over the summer. Nathan Bech was loudly badgering Olver over the summer, but my inbox is lot quieter now than it was in August. Which is weird. Anyway, not much heat in these elections.

State House, Senate and the rest
Heavy boredom, with unchallenged races and down-ballot seats that don't require any attention.

Question 1
It'll fail. I'm not sure it will reach the high-50s that polls have it at. I'm guessing it will be pretty close to 2002, when it failed about 55-45. If the question's proponents were smart, they'd drop it and consider an income tax reduction in the future to 4 percent or so. Then we'd really have something to talk about.

Question 2
Polls have this question exceptionally close. All kinds of police chiefs and other law-and-order types are opposed. I'm guessing, but I think it'll fail. In the end, people will feel like they're making marijuana more OK, and will automatically think that is bad.

Question 3
I think this will fail also, but it will be close. And I wouldn't be surprised if it passes. But I think the emotional argument loses out to voters who wonder just how badly someone would treat their money-makers.

Question 4
This one came out of nowhere. It's non-binding, and encourages green technologies. Fitchburg is one of 11 House districts that have it on the ballot. I got my first press release on it last Thursday night/Friday morning. If people read the question, they'll probably vote in favor of it, but who knows?

So, there you go.

A Most Unusual Phone Call

Unless I'm pimping a story at the Fitchburg Pride website (which you should visit, and sign up for the e-mail breaking news alerts -- they're good and good for you), rarely do I talk about newspaper/journalism stuff. But today there's enough interesting politics involved that I figured it was worth writing during an otherwise slow, hot July week.

This has nothing to do with Fitchburg, except that Deval Patrick is governor here, too.

On Monday morning, the governor held a conference call with local reporters to discuss some economic development grants. And it wasn't one big statewide call. It was a series of calls with reporters from different regions receiving grants. Each session was about 15 minutes long (based on the fact that a Patriot Ledger reporter jumped on the call after about 15 minutes of our call, and was told to hang on for just a minute).

So, for 15 minutes, a reporter from the Telegram and I had the governor to talk economic development in Leominster (you can read the story here if you wanna). As a local reporter, it was a valuable opporunity to get the governor on the phone. As a reporter who has been covering local and state politics for almost 15 years, it was unheard of.

I was a reporter at the local and state level during the Weld, Cellucci, Swift and Romney administrations. The first three were pretty accessible to the State House press corps (Weld was the best when he was engaged and ready to have fun). Romney would look right through unless you had a TV camera or were from New York or Washington (to the point where last year, Mrs. Save Fitchburg and I were in Florida and watching a news report about Romney in a nearby community. She covered the Romney campaign and the first year or so of his administration. We agreed if she bumped into Romney on a beach he'd have no clue she was -- an example of his ridiculousness, and not Mrs. Save Fitchburg's greatness, mind you).

Anyway, none of the above were hopping on a conference call to yak with weekly newspaper reporters, who are usually only useful during campaigns, and even then they have minimal value, truth be told. But Patrick is making an effort here, and it's uniqueness is worth noting.

And it's working. Usually these announcements come in press release -- often through a state department or the local representative or senator's office. In those cases, the governor's name is buried or completely eliminated. But check out my story, and the Telegram's. Patrick is at the top of both. How can he not be? He's making the announcement, and he is the governor, after all.

It's a savvy move by Patrick, and fits the grassroots style he fashioned during his campaign.

It will be interesting to see if this was a one-off, or if it's something he'll be doing more often (I vote for more often).

Finally, I'm particularly intrigued by this because in my last job, I was working on a political campaign where we cleaned up with endorsements and solid stories in the big media, but were absolutely croaked by the small-town newspapers. In the end, we lost, and at the time I wondered if big-media influence was dying, and that screaming from the local rooftops was the way to go. Perhaps Patrick is thinking the same thing. I don't know, but I think while the topic of Monday's conference call was typical boilerplate grant announcement, the politics of the thing was interesting and worth noting.

10-1

What to make of the 10-1 vote on incoming Police Chief Robert DeMoura? Was Ward 3 Councilor Joel Kaddy sticking to his guns, or is this a piece of evidence to a larger battle with the mayor?

Kaddy was a Tom Donnelly guy during last year's campaign. He said all the right things after Lisa Wong was elected and took office, but Tuesday's vote along with Kaddy's previous comments on the chief and some buzz regarding Kaddy trying to run around the mayor on some other things has to make you wonder.

Kaddy didn't want DeMoura. He wanted Bozicas. Fine. He wasn't the only one. But traditionally, one of two things happen in these situations: The one holdout councilor either toes the party line and votes in favor of the obvious candidate, or the councilor votes against, but immediately after asks to has his or her vote changed. In both cases, the councilor includes a little speech about getting along and being a team player and promoting unity and all that. It sends the message that bygones are bygones and everyone is ready to move forward.

But that didn't happen here. Why? Kaddy should have read the handwriting on the wall. He knew how this was going down. So why not take the traditional path? Why not vote for unity and welcoming the chief and all that, instead of reminding everyone one more time how there's a chunk of the city pissed off at this hire.

Kaddy, it should be noted, is a former police officer, and surely his vote was well received by his former colleagues. But Kaddy doesn't work for the police officers. He works for the people of Ward 3, and the entire city second. Maybe this vote would have been just mildly interesting if it wasn't for some rumors that Kaddy has pulled a move or two recently to try to cut off a potential Wong plan at the pass (and, no, I'm not offering details, yet).

Maybe this is all just bad math: Donnelly supporter + outspoken Bozicas fan + rumor mill + holding ground on a vote = Kaddy-Wong feud. Or maybe this is the first sign that not all 11 councilors are on the same page with mayor, and may not be totally willing to play ball. We'll probably get a better answer to that question during budget season, which is just weeks away.

One thing about Kaddy's vote is for sure: A unanimous vote could have put an end to the hometown/outsider battle that turned the chief's search ugly (although the resulting pick is solid). Instead, Kaddy's vote is a reminder not just that those divisions were there, they probably aren't going away.

Welcome to Fitchburg, Robert DeMoura. And welcome to Fitchburg politics, Lisa Wong.