It's Prediction Time

OK, the preliminary election is tomorrow. Some candidates have been running for a few months (Lisa Wong), some for about a year and a half (Ted DeSalvatore), and some, apparently, for the last 35 years (Tom Donnelly).

Anyway, for one of the above -- and Ron Dionne (sorry, Ron) -- it all ends tomorrow at about 9 p.m. when the votes are tallied.

But why wait until tomorrow when we can begin to guess the outcome now. Here's my prediction, and we welcome yours. Remember, this is merely a prediction, and I wouldn't bet one dime on any of it. I think for two candidates, it's going to be an uneasy night.

I'm guessing turnout is going to be in the 13-14 percent range, or about 3,300 voters. All numbers below subject to change based on how that goes.

Tom Donnelly should win tomorrow. I'm guessing with about 1,350 votes, or roughly 40 percent of the vote. In a preliminary election, the base rules, and he has the best base. Also, let's face it, he is tailoring his campaign message so far to long-time voters. He's hammering away at his "35 years," appealing to elderly voters. It might turn off voters looking for change, but he has enough relationships and time in that he should finish first tomorrow. Despite is off-key work over the last month, he should get 1,000 votes falling out of bed tomorrow. Throw him a few more, and he wins this thing, easy. The question: Is 40 percent the knockout punch he wants to deliver, and make this thing seem like a done deal going into the general? Not sure it does.

I'm slotting Wong in the second spot, with 1,000 votes, or right about 30 percent. Her debate performance last Thursday night might have been the difference. She should do well with younger voters -- and by that I mean parents with young children, in their early- to mid-30s to early-40s. That's not a huge number, however, so she'll need some help from elsewhere. She has some good connections in community which will help, and as voters consider the financial situation, her MBA should come into play.

I think DeSalvatore is going to finish third, with about 800 votes, or roughly 25 percent. You can scan local blogs to gauge the general discomfort and distrust a large segment of the population feels about DeSalvatore. He has a motivated fan base, but an equally inspired opposition base. He will win a nice chunk of votes through his get-tough talk, but for every voter who likes it, at least one has written him off. I wonder if at the last minute, some of his soft support erodes as voters face that final moment of truth. If Wong is charging down the homestretch after last week, DeSalvatore seems to be straining at the finish line.

That leaves about 150 votes for Dionne, who has proven he can play well with others and really cares about the city.

So, there you go. You can ignore the numbers if you want, and stick with my Donnelly-Wong-DeSalvatore finish. Any thoughts?