Or-gan-I-zation

OK, back to presidential politics. Iowa is two weeks from today. New Hampshire is five days after that. It's time, people.

I've never been to Iowa, and sadly haven't stepped foot in New Hampshire during this presidential cycle. But a key thing in both states -- particularly Iowa -- is organization. It's getting people to the polls and caucus rooms -- particularly the caucus rooms. You don't win without it.

In 2004, for example, John Kerry was simply getting his ass kicked through the second half of 2003. Howard Dean owned the message, the polls, and the media. But Team Kerry kept working in Iowa. It kept lining up the local power brokers -- the mayors, the councilors, the selectmen -- that not only came to caucuses but brought a friend. They got their ducks all lined up.

Kerry was able to build momentum over the last week or two before Iowa -- momentum that propelled him through New Hampshire and into the nomination -- but that momentum started months before, as his team cobbled together a winning network in Corn Country.

So, who has the best organization in Iowa? I don't know, but if I did, I'd bank on that person winning the caucuses. You can make some guesses, of course.

On the Democratic side, you'd have to think Hillary Clinton has some advantage, after Bill ran in Iowa twice. Obama has done his due dilligence, and John Edwards has been there before, and did fairly well.

On the Republican side, no one has spent more time and money in Iowa than our own Mitt Romney. He'd better win in Iowa, or that's a bad, bad sign for the Mitter. Giuliani is looking at a national campaign that loads up on Super Tuesday big population states (but if he takes a beating in Iowa and N.H., is he already cooked?). The John McCain campaign struggled through the summer, so wonder about his organization.

New Hampshire might be a bit different. Romney should have a super organization there. Edwards might run a bit stronger, although his second-place finish in '04 offered him little bounce (although Kerry's win sucked out all the oxygen, along with Dean's yelling implosion). Clinton is likely solid in N.H. McCain beat Bush in N.H. in 2000, so he might be a wild card.

Beyond all that is Mike Huckabee, who has been polling well but all signs point to a limited grassroots effort. That, and the constant stream of disquieting news now that he's in the spotlight, makes him an unlikely winner in all this. And yes, Ron Paul has been a nice surprise, but if he gets double-digits in either states that's a great outing for that guy. (Paul supporters, you're free to go off.)

In the end, like these things usually are, Iowa and New Hampshire won't be won or lost in the next few weeks (barring blockbuster news). They will have been won months ago, as candidates shook hands, twisted arms, and did what they had to do line up support one powerbroker at a time.