Wednesday, April 23, 2008

When Will This Late Game End?

Ugh. It just goes on and on. Even though her obit was written months ago (it was written here on Feb. 27), Hillary Clinton finds just enough reason to keep dragging out this Democratic presidential nomination process.

Let's talk sports for a minute here. Basketball, perhaps. Clinton came into this game as the favorite, Obama built up a narrow lead by halftime, and has managed to protect most of it in the second half. But he hasn't put Clinton away. Let's say, at this point, Clinton is down by six with about two minutes left. Can she win? Yes. But will she? Well, she'll need some help down the stretch. But weirder things have happened.

In some ways, Clinton makes a compelling argument. She has won the big states, and she has won some important states. Barack Obama makes a point when he says he'll win California. But what about Pennsylvania, which is in play this fall? He couldn't win there. More importantly for Democrats, how about Ohio, which is most certainly in play? Clinton won there, too.

The presidential election is all about the Electoral College, and winning the key states. Ohio is one of them. Don't the Democrats want their best player in that game? Clinton's win there and in PA gives her standing.

Additionally, what is about Obama that doesn't allow him to seal the deal? Certainly, the nature of politics tries to drag down a frontrunner -- especially a frontrunner that has a narrow lead -- but for a guy who had at least three chances to shut the door (New Hampshire, Ohio/Texas, last night), he has not been able to do it. Why can't he close?

On the flip side, Obama has the lead, and enough of a lead that it's going to take some unseemly backroom dealings by Team Clinton to win the nomination. It would have to kill on the superdelegate side, which would do nothing to reduce her insider label. And it would play into the "Hillary's a conniving schemer" wing of both parties, which would not be good times for the Democrats. Although this is what the Democrats get for building things this way.

She's playing by the rules, even though the rules stink, and how can you blame her? She's thisclose to pulling this off, and she'll never get this close again. While Republicans don't mind retreads in their presidential candidates (say hello, Richard Nixon, George Bush I, Bob Dole, and John McCain), the Democrats usually cast theirs aside (hi, Al Gore and John Kerry). It's now or never or Clinton, and it's not the most horrible thing to exend "now" a bit longer.

Obama's problem is that his lead is just too small. While all signs point to him winning, that mythical six-point lead is too short to allow him to play out the clock. Clinton's going to need to pull off a comeback for the ages, but ask Kansas if that's possible (that's a basketball reference, not a political one).

So, on it goes. Clinton is now playing to win, firing threes, and Obama is playing not to lose, hoping the damn clock will finally run out. In the meantime, he's burning through the amazing pile of dough he's accumulated ($41 million in March. Good Lord), and neither one is going to come out of this in great shape. There's another game after this one, and the opponent is rested and ready.

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