Let's Talk Hoops

Nope, the weekend did nothing to lessen my obsession with the Boston Celtics. In fact, it was a distraction all weekend.

Part of the problem is that for the last six weeks, the Cs were playing an every-other-day schedule. No game last night was a little weird. I had been conditioned for one day on, one day off. Whatever, I cleared up some of the "Lost" backlog (no discussion, please. Still three episodes away from being done. Yes, I stink).

Anyway, it's time to talk hoops.

Of course, for the Celtics, dealing with Kobe Bryant is issue number one. Of course, he can go all LeBron and drop 40 at a moment's notice, but it seems as if his playoff MO this year has been to get 30 or so, but get them in bunches when it matters. Taking over games is his speciality. That's a problem.

You'd have to assume they're going to run something similar as they did with James, doubling way up high and stopping him before he gets a head of steam. Part of the problem, though, is that Bryant has a dependable jump shot, which James doesn't have. Also, Bryant has a better supporting cast, namely Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom (who can disappear at times, however). Derek Fisher is a troublesome spot-up shooter.

Set aside the Kobe situation for a second, and there are still problems. Gasol is very, very good, and will keep Perk busy (Garnett has to go on Radmonovic, to be a free to wander). Odom will be a significant problem. He's big at 6'10 for Pierce to cover, but it's gotta be Pierce, which means Pierce can't cover Bryant, forcing it on Ray Allen. Doc Rivers should note that bringing James Posey in for defense isn't a bad idea if the offense is clicking OK (see Friday night's fourth quarter), and I'd think about bringing in Posey regularly to try to keep Kobe down as much as possible (good luck on that one).

The short answer is the Lakers are a very, very good offensive team. The good news is the Celts are the best defensive team in the NBA. This won't be the slogfest of the Pistons or Cavs series, although the Spurs did keep the score in the high-80s/low-90s a few times.

The good news is that the Lakers aren't in the same league defensively as the Cavs and Pistons, and the Celts will provide some matchup problems equal to those the Celts face. Rondo is much quicker than Fisher. If Rondo can play his confident game, he should be effective on both ends. Kobe is going to have to cover either Allen or Pierce. In either case, the Celts have to make Kobe work on the defense end, either chasing Allen from one side of the court to the other, or having Pierce grind him away by going to the basket and running him off pick-and-rolls.

More importantly, perhaps, the Lakers' best chance at guarding Garnett might be Odom, but the Celtics are looking at a significant mismatch in Garnett vs. Laker X. Maybe a Luke Walton brings some high-energy, change-of-pace D to the game, but for the most part the Celtics need to see Garnett has a super-quality option in this series -- particularly in the post and his now-patented elbow jumper. It just might end up being the key to this series.

One more thing: If Phil Jackson wins this series, he ties Red Auerbach for most titles as a coach. This can't happen. It just can't. Not on the Celtics' watch. I expect this plotline to become bigger, but the legacy of Red must be protected.

So, in the end, here's a fan's prediction: Celtics in 6. They take the first two at home, win Game 4, and then finish it at home in Game 6.