What They Need

We'll return to local programming tomorrow (promise). But in the meantime, we're six days from Iowa and 13 days from New Hampshire, it's time to figure out who needs what over the next two weeks to stay alive -- and viable.

Republicans
Mitt Romney -- He needs a win in Iowa or New Hampshire, perhaps both. He has run his entire campaign on building momentum through a fast start in the first two states. A loss in either is damaging. Losing both means it might be all over for the ex-governor. He'll be battling Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in Arizona. The numbers are trending against him. Two weeks from now, he could be all done. Amazing, considering where he was six months ago. It's all or nothing for him right now.

Mike Huckabee -- A win in Iowa is necessary, maybe second place. If he can finish third in N.H. with a win in Iowa, he's still in the game. But he needs to win Iowa. After exploding on the scene a few months ago, he's taken some hits, and has a fairly creepy background. But a scalping of Romney in Iowa makes him viable. He needs to not implode in New Hampshire. He could finish fourth -- or worse -- there, easily. If Romney falls and McCain disappoints in N.H., he might be the one to square off with Rudy Giuliani.

John McCain -- He isn't winning Iowa, and probably can't finish better than third. Fourth is more like it, and fifth probably isn't totally out of the quesiton. But he's a perfect New Hampshire candidate, and is charging hard here at the end. He'll probably need to win N.H. to advance with any strength, but that is certainly need he should feel good about. He's in better shape than Romney and Huckabee. He's coming from behind and has some momentum. He avoids Romney "all or nothing" role early, and isn't as sketchy as Huckabee.

Rudy Giuliani -- Forget Iowa and New Hampshire. He's looking at Florida, New York, California, and other big centrists states. He needs to survive to Feb. 5, when the big states are in play and the delegates start piling up. Here's his biggest problem: What if he gets croaked in Iowa and New Hampshire? What if he finishes fourth in both states? Do the media start piling on? Is he framed as a back-of-the-pack loser? His strategy might be the right one on paper, but will people want to hear it if he finishes fourth in both states?

Ron Paul -- He'll need to crack the top four in Iowa or New Hampshire to make the cut. Unlikely to happen. Nice run, but he goes to "also receiving votes" after N.H. Let the screaming begin.

End result: Romney and Huckabee bid farewell by Feb. 6 or 7. McCain wears out Giuliani in the end.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton -- She can survive losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, but she can't afford to finish third in either. She likely has the strongest nationwide organization, and has the most cash. If Obama can blow her out in either state, she could be damaged. Like Giuliani, she's looking to roll up numbers on Feb. 5, when her organizational strength can help her out. But she's run a traditional campaign that has put a priority on the first two states. A win in either one, and she's perfectly fine.

Barack Obama -- He, too, can likely survive two seconds over the next two weeks, but a win gives him a big boost of credibility and some results to match his potential. He can't afford a blowout at this point, which would restore some of Clinton's aura of inevitability. He also can't really finish lower than second. That would give John Edwards just enough incentive to make his life miserable for another month.

John Edwards -- What he really needs a win, but that's unlikely. He needs a second-place finish to keep going. That's a difficult, difficult chore. While the Republican roster is deep, the Democratic side is top-heavy. Poll numbers have him just far enough behind the top two that he needs more than a strong showing, he needs a little political miracle. Two close thirds may let him stay in and hope for lightning in a bottle in South Carolina and other southern states, but if he gets blown out, it'll be over and out.

The rest -- There's such a yawning gap with the rest, even though the field is so strong. Guys like Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd deserve better than the single digits they'll get.

End result: If it isn't a two-man race between Clinton and Obama now, it'll be clearly there by the time New Hampshire is over. Clinton wins the war of attrition.