About Last Night

The American presidency comes with the title of "leader of the free world," and the power to reshape the nation and the world with just a few words. It affords the opportunity to make the country and the world a better place, and guarantees a place in history.

The people who want the job will spend close to a half-billion dollars to get it. They'll speak to crowds of thousands at a time, and have spent years, if not decades, waiting for their chance.

And then it all gets squashed by a bunch of people sitting in middle-school cafeterias and their neighbors' living rooms.

For Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton, last night's Iowa caucuses were a eye-opening warning that their hopes and dreams -- and millions of dollars -- are potentially going down the tubes. All because a bunch of farmers don't like them.

For Romney, the news is most dire. He pinned his entire campaign on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, or at least coming very close to winning both. Getting whomped by Mike Huckabee last night isn't going to do it, and now he faces a dogfight with John McCain in New Hampshire, were the mood lately has been more anti-Mitt than pro anyone else.

Clinton's situation isn't as dire. A win in N.H. would be a big, big help, but she probably doesn't need it. If she doesn't win, she'll need to get one -- fast -- to hang in against Barack Obama.

A quick rundown of winners and losers last night:

Winners
Rudy Giuliani. He might be the biggest winner. For his broad-based campaign that all but ignored Iowa and includes just a passing effort in New Hampshire, he needed a split out of the first two states. He's going to get it, unless Huckabee pulls off a real stunner (I'm guessing no on that one). If Romney is gassed after N.H., the top three are then McCain -- who has little beyond N.H. -- and Huckabee -- who has little organization anywhere -- are all that's left for Giuliani to take care of. He should have been very happy last night.

Huckabee and Obama. Of course. But particularly Obama. Huckabee needed this to be taken serioiusly. Obama already was being taken seriously. If he can win again on Tuesday, he might have the nomination by the throat.

Losers
Romney and Clinton. See above.

John Edwards. Second, over Clinton, is nice, but he needed to be right there with the leader -- or win -- to stay viable. He'll finish probably third in N.H., and then he's done, making it two horses the rest of the way. There's something about that guy that will keep him in Tier 1A forever, never breaking into the top tier of viability.

Ron Paul. He's had a nice run, sort of. He'll be the darling of the fiscally-conservative set until the end, but it's over, Johnny. Thanks for playing. Your footnote on Wiki is waiting at the door.

America. There were some good, smart candidates way down on the Democrat ballot. Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd deserve better than single-digits. They were just as capable and just as smart as Clinton and Obama, but got killed by not being superstars. Downer.

Winner and loser
Giuliani. His long-term strategy likely stays in place, but he finished sixth. What if he finishes fifth or sixth again in New Hampshire? He'd have to win Florida in late January to prove his strategy is going to work, you'd have to think. But will people start burying him with two bad losses? Some folks were writing off Clinton last night, and there's no avoiding the damage done to Romney. How long can Giuliani finish in single-digits before people start wondering?

The good news is things still seem fairly wide open, and that it's likely Mass will matter somewhat on Feb. 5. There's a chance it might be over Feb. 6, but at least Massachusetts is likely in the ballgame for the primary. And that's cool news.