Mitt Romney's Last Stand

Voters in New Hampshire are currently voting, and it's quite possible they could be throwing dirt on Mitt Romney's political grave. Maybe Hillary Clinton's, too.

We'll focus on Romney because he's the former governor we all can't stand. If you want, you can substitute future "Romney" with "Clinton." Although I think Clinton at least has a little bit of a better shot if she loses today. Although the Obama wave is getting bigger by the day.

If Romney loses today, he's 0-2 in the first two states. Even though they are fairly meaningless three years out of four, Iowa and New Hampshire play starring roles in national politics in that fourth. Mike Huckabee didn't roll up huge delegate totals on Thursday, and the winner of today (John McCain?) won't either.

A loss today means Romney has to answer a lot of questions. He'll have no momentum, and will be considered in danger. The media -- which doesn't like him (who does?) -- will pile on. He will be facing a ton of intangibles that are all negative.

Some of it is unfair. Why does the nation -- and yes, the media -- put so much importance on these states? Why should a close loss in New Hampshire mean Romney is not viable in New York, Florida, California and other states? Why does this mean so much, so soon?

But here's where it is fair. And here's the larger point that might get lost in the political hyperbole that will follow after today. What is it about Mitt Romney, the candidate and/or (to steal Ted DeSalvatore's favorite conjunction) his campaign, that has failed to acheive the main strategic objectives of winning Iowa and New Hampshire? Is it the, to put it nicely, murky policy positions? Is he too polished? Does he fail to make a connection with voters?

Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have seen a lot of Romney over the last year, and his campaign organizations have spent obscene amounts of time, energy and money in those states. Say what you want about Iowa and New Hampshire's importance in the process, but its voters get a better look at the candidates than any other state throughout the campaign. If voters there are turning their noses at Romney, he either needs to figure out why and fix it, or realize he's done.

So, tonight could be Mitt Romney's last stand. Not because of what happens after tonight, but for what happened in the year before tonight.