Wednesday, August 01, 2007

What Does It Mean?

So, now that the initial surprise is starting to wear off, it's time to start thinking: What does today's news from Dan Mylott mean for the mayor's race?

It's an interesting question that might not really have an answer.

For a while, this race has been a pretty simple equation: Status quo, or change in the form of old-school change (Thomas Donnelly), new-school change (Lisa Wong) or angry change (Ted DeSalvatore). Now, it's just change.

It seems unlikely that Mylott supporters will automatically flock in one specific direction. Donnelly might get a boost in that he now had the deepest resume of the pack. DeSalvatore might lose a bit of steam, because the main focus of his fire is gone. I'm not sure if it helps, hurts, or doesn't effect Wong.

It certainly makes the preliminary and absolute free-for-all. While Mylott's support seemed to be waning, he was still a viable contender to get through the crowded preliminary. Now, it's wide-open. I'm not really sure there's a void for someone to step into and automatically take over. If the two winners of the preliminary were going to come in probably in the high 20s or 30s in terms of percentage, now it's like mid- to high 30s. I'm not sure someone is suddenly guaranteed 40 percent, and forget a 50 percent mandate.

Supporters and detractors from all sides can make arguments for or against the candidates helped or hurt by this. I'd love to hear them and see if any of them make sense.

Finally, I'm not really feeling the last-minute candidate out of this. I think Mylott was considered vulnerable before, so it's unlikely someone's courage is suddenly fortified by his departure. Now, if someone thinks they can step in and completely take over the Mylott machine, grab a few more votes, and immediately be in the mix, then it's a new ballgame. But I'm not sure who that person is. And that person has six days to shake off the surprise, test the waters, and get signatures. A longshot right now.

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